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Blackjack betting strategy true country william hill horse racing betting guide

Blackjack betting strategy true country

The cards are typically not reshuffled after every round of play which renders the game susceptible to advantage play techniques such as card counting. This method enables skilled players to track the ratio of high to low cards , which gives them an accurate idea of what their odds of winning a given round are. It is a mathematically proven fact that in blackjack, the excess of high cards that remain to be played tips the odds in favor of the player. And vice versa, the excess of low cards shifts the advantage in favor of the house.

The book became an overnight success and scared casino operators into changing the rules of the game in an attempt to prevent players from beating it through counting. One of the first things they did was increase the number of decks in play. Little did they know this was nothing but a small bump in the road for card counters who continue to crush the game of 21 to this day. Card counting is veiled in myths and misconceptions, which result largely from the way this advanced method is portrayed in media and movies.

Passed from one generation to the next, these misconceptions prevent many people from learning how to become profitable blackjack players. The infamous scene from the Academy Award-winning motion picture Rain Man serves as a classic example. Luckily for card counters worldwide, there is not even an ounce of truth in this statement. Card counting can be just as effective in shoe games as it is in single-deck blackjack.

It simply requires a slightly different approach. Either way, the betting session starts with players keeping track of each dealt card that appears on the table. Each card is assigned a count value which depends on the counting system one uses. Counting Multiple Decks in Blackjack Additional Tips Keeping track of each dealt card helps the player establish their running count which gives them an accurate enough idea about the composition of the remaining deck.

This running count should be maintained throughout the entire course of the game until the dealer shuffles again. The player uses the knowledge of the ratio of high to low cards to determine their edge and sizes their bets in proportion to this edge. So for example, if cards K, 10, 2, 8, and 6 appear during the first round, you end up with a running count of 0 because the high and low cards cancel themselves out.

The 7 is neutral and as such, has no effect on the running count. The odds have not yet swung in your favor so you should not increase the size of your next bet. However, maintaining a running count alone is not enough to accurately determine your advantage when multiple decks are in play.

The edge it gives you is less significant because more than five and a half decks are still in play. In order to arrive at an accurate estimate of their edge, multiple-deck players must convert the current running count into a true count per deck. The true count denotes the density of high or low cards per deck.

You arrive at an accurate true count after you divide the running count by the number of undealt decks. It is obvious those who play shoe games should also learn to accurately determine the number of undealt decks. The discard tray enables the dealer to stack the dealt cards neatly so that they are clearly visible to everyone at the table. Deck estimation requires a lot of practice but once you master it, you only have to subtract the number of the remaining decks from the total number of decks the game started with.

Counting into multiple decks of cards is not rocket science but it still requires a good amount of discipline and persistence if you insist on accuracy. Once you master maintaining an accurate running count, you need to practice your deck estimation. One approach recommended by blackjack experts is to purchase a discard tray and fifteen standard packs of cards.

You should divide the packs into five separate stacks where the first stack contains a single deck, the second stack contains two decks, the third contains three decks and so on. You can label each stack so you know how many decks are in there. You put any one group of cards on the table, inspect it closely for some time and try to determine the number of decks in contains. Try to do it without looking at the labels. Then you place the groups of cards, one at a time, in the discard tray and practice deck estimation by inspecting the height of each stack.

It sounds more difficult than it really is. You will be surprised how accurate you can get when you put in enough practice. The bigger your edge gets, the higher the amounts you should wager. The majority of experienced blackjack players choose to size their bets according to a betting technique known as the Kelly Criterion.

This approach enables them to maximize their profits and reduce the risk of losing their bankrolls at the same time. The edge players manage to get in blackjack is not all that substantial so one should not expose large portions of their bankroll to risk during any given round of play. Card counters gain an edge in blackjack by sizing their bets proportionately to the count.

They increase their wagers when they have the edge and bet the table minimum or nothing at all when the casino has the edge. Some strategies count the ace ace-reckoned strategies and some do not ace-neutral strategies. Including aces in the count improves betting correlation since the ace is the most valuable card in the deck for betting purposes.

However, since the ace can either be counted as one or eleven, including an ace in the count decreases the accuracy of playing efficiency. Since PE is more important in single- and double-deck games, and BC is more important in shoe games, counting the ace is more important in shoe games. One way to deal with such tradeoffs is to ignore the ace to yield higher PE while keeping a side count which is used to detect an additional change in EV which the player will use to detect additional betting opportunities that ordinarily would not be indicated by the primary card counting system.

The most common side counted card is the ace since it is the most important card in terms of achieving a balance of BC and PE. Since there is the potential to create an overtaxing demand on the human mind while using a card counting system another important design consideration is the ease of use. The Running count is the running total of each card's assigned value. When using a Balanced count such as the Hi-Lo system , the Running count is converted into a "True count," which takes into consideration the number of decks used.

With Hi-Lo, the True count is essentially the Running count divided by the number of decks that have not yet been dealt; this can be calculated by division or approximated with an average card count per round times the number of rounds dealt.

However, many variations of the True count calculation exist. Back-counting, also known as "Wonging," consists of standing behind a blackjack table that other players are playing on, and counting the cards as they are dealt with.

Stanford Wong first proposed the idea of back-counting, and the term "Wong" comes from his pen name. The player will enter or "Wong in" to the game when the count reaches a point at which the player has an advantage. The player may then raise their bets as their advantage increases, or lower their bets as their advantage goes down.

Some back-counters prefer to flat-bet, and only bet the same amount once they have entered the game. Some players will stay at the table until the game is shuffled, or they may "Wong out" or leave when the count reaches a level at which they no longer have an advantage. Back-counting is generally done on shoe games, of 4, 6, or 8 decks, although it can be done on pitch games of 1 or 2 decks.

The reason for this is that the count is more stable in a shoe game, so a player will be less likely to sit down for one or two hands and then have to get up. In addition, many casinos do not allow "mid-shoe entry" in single or double deck games which makes Wonging impossible. Another reason is that many casinos exhibit more effort to thwart card counters on their pitch games than on their shoe games, as a counter has a smaller advantage on an average shoe game than in a pitch game.

Back-counting is different from traditional card-counting, in that the player does not play every hand they see. This offers several advantages. For one, the player does not play hands at which they do not have a statistical advantage. This increases the total advantage of the player.

Another advantage is that the player does not have to change their bet size as much, or at all if they choose. Large variations in bet size are one way that casinos detect card counters, and this is eliminated with back-counting. There are several disadvantages to back-counting. One is that the player frequently does not stay at the table long enough to earn comps from the casino. Another disadvantage is that some players may become irritated with players who enter in the middle of a game, and superstitiously believe that this interrupts the "flow" of the cards.

Their resentment may not merely be superstition, though, as this practice will negatively impact the other players at the table, because with one fewer player at the table when the card composition becomes unfavorable, the other players will play through more hands under those conditions as they will use up fewer cards per hand, and similarly, they will play fewer hands in the rest of the card shoe if the advantage player slips in during the middle of the shoe when the cards become favorable because, with one more player, more of those favorable cards will be used up per hand.

This negatively impacts the other players, whether they are counting cards or not. Lastly, a player who hops in and out of games may attract unwanted attention from casino personnel and may be detected as a card-counter. While a single player can maintain their own advantage with back-counting, card counting is most often used by teams of players to maximize their advantage.

In such a team, some players called "spotters" will sit at a table and play the game at the table minimum, while keeping a count basically doing the back "counting". When the count is significantly high, the spotter will discreetly signal another player, known as a "big player," that the count is high the table is "hot".

The big player will then "Wong in" and wager vastly higher sums up to the table maximum while the count is high. When the count "cools off" or the shoe is shuffled resetting the count , the big player will "Wong out" and look for other counters who are signaling a high count. This was the system used by the MIT Blackjack Team , whose story was in turn the inspiration for the Canadian movie The Last Casino which was later re-made into the Hollywood version The main advantage of group play is that the team can count several tables while a single back-counting player can usually only track one table.

This allows big players to move from table to table, maintaining the high-count advantage without being out of action very long. It also allows redundancy while the big player is seated as both the counter and big player can keep the count as in the movie 21 , the spotter can communicate the count to the big player discreetly as they sit down. The disadvantages include requiring multiple spotters who can keep an accurate count, splitting the "take" among all members of the team, requiring spotters to play a table regardless of the count using only basic strategy, these players will lose money long-term , and requiring signals, which can alert pit bosses.

A simple variation removes the loss of having spotters play; the spotters simply watch the table instead of playing and signal big players to Wong in and out as normal. The disadvantages of this variation are reduced ability of the spotter and big player to communicate, reduced comps as the spotters are not sitting down, and vastly increased suspicion, as blackjack is not generally considered a spectator sport in casinos except among those actually playing unlike craps , roulette and wheels of fortune which have larger displays and so tend to attract more spectators.

A mathematical principle called the Kelly criterion indicates that bet increases should be proportional to the player advantage. In practice, this means that the higher the count, the more a player should bet on each hand in order to take advantage of the player's edge. Using this principle, a card counter may elect to vary their bet size in proportion to the advantage dictated by a count creating what is called a "Bet ramp" according to the principles of the Kelly criterion.

A bet ramp is a betting plan with a specific bet size tied to each true count value in such a way that the player is betting proportionally to the player advantage with aim to maximize overall bankroll growth. Taken to its ultimate conclusion, the Kelly criterion would demand that a player not bet anything at all when the deck does not offer a positive expectation; the "Wonging" strategy described above implements this.

Historically, blackjack played with a perfect basic strategy offered a house edge of less than 0. Advantages of up to 2. The variance in blackjack is high, so generating a sizable profit can take hundreds of hours of play. Under one set of circumstances, a player with a unit bet spread with only one-deck cut off of a six-deck game will enjoy an advantage of as much as 1. Instead, it comes from the increased probability of blackjacks, increased gain and benefits from doubling, splitting, and surrender, and the insurance side bet, which becomes profitable at high counts.

A range of card counting devices are available but are deemed to be illegal in most U. Card counting with the mind is legal, although casinos in the US reserve the right to remove anyone they suspect of using the technique. Card counting is not illegal under British law, nor is it under federal, state, or local laws in the United States provided that no external card counting device or person assists the player in counting cards.

Still, casinos object to the practice, and try to prevent it, [23] banning players believed to be counters. In their pursuit to identify card counters, casinos sometimes misidentify and ban players suspected of counting cards even if they do not.

In , Ken Uston , a Blackjack Hall of Fame inductee, filed a lawsuit against an Atlantic City casino, claiming that casinos did not have the right to ban skilled players. The New Jersey Supreme Court agreed, [25] ruling that "the state's control of Atlantic City's casinos is so complete that only the New Jersey Casino Control Commission has the power to make rules to exclude skillful players. As they are unable to ban counters even when identified, Atlantic City casinos have increased the use of countermeasures.

Macau , the gambling capital of the world and the only legal gambling location in China, [27] does not technically prohibit card counting but casinos reserve the right to expel or ban any customers, as is the case in the US and Britain. Monitoring player behavior to assist with detecting the card counters falls into the hands of the on-floor casino personnel " pit bosses " and casino-surveillance personnel, who may use video surveillance "the eye in the sky " as well as computer analysis, to try to spot playing behavior indicative of card counting.

Early counter-strategies featured the dealers learning to count the cards themselves to recognize the patterns in the players. Many casino chains keep databases of players that they consider undesirable. For successful card counters, therefore, skill at "cover" behavior, to hide counting and avoid "drawing heat" and possibly being barred, may be just as important as playing skill.

Detection of card counters will be confirmed after a player is first suspected of counting cards; when seeking card counters, casino employees, whatever their position, could be alerted by many things that are most common when related to card counting but not common for other players. These include: [33] [34] [35]. Card counters may make unique playing strategy deviations not normally used by non-counters.

Extremely aggressive plays such as splitting tens and doubling soft 19 and 20 are often called out to the pit to notify them because they are telltale signs of not only card counters but hole carding. Several semi-automated systems have been designed to aid the detection of card counters. The MindPlay system now discontinued scanned card values as the cards we're dealt. The Shuffle Master Intelligent Shoe system also scans card values as cards exit the shoe. Software called Bloodhound and Protec 21 [36] allows voice input of card and bet values, in an attempt to determine the player edge.

A more recent innovation is the use of RFID signatures embedded within the casino chips so that the table can automatically track bet amounts. Automated card-reading technology has known abuse potential in that it can be used to simplify the practice of preferential shuffling —having the dealer reshuffle the cards whenever the odds favor the players.

To comply with licensing regulations, some blackjack protection systems have been designed to delay access to real-time data on remaining cards in the shoe. With card values, play decisions, and bet decisions conveniently accessible, the casino can analyze bet variation, play accuracy, and play variation. Bet variation. The simplest way a card counter makes money is to bet more when they have an edge.

While playing back the tapes of a recent session of play, the software can generate a scatter plot of the amount bet versus the count at the time the bet was made and find the trendline that best fits the scattered points. If the player is not counting cards, there will be no trend; their bet variation and the count variation will not consistently correlate.

If the player is counting and varying bets according to the count, there will be a trend whose slope reflects the player's average edge from this technique. Play variation. When card counters vary from basic strategy, they do so in response to the count, to gain an additional edge. The software can verify whether there is a pattern to play variation. Of particular interest is whether the player sometimes when the count is positive takes insurance and stands on 16 versus a dealer 10, but plays differently when the count is negative.

Casinos have spent a great amount of effort and money in trying to thwart card counters. Countermeasures used to prevent card counters from profiting at blackjack include: [41] [42] [30] [43]. Some jurisdictions e. Nevada have few legal restrictions placed on these countermeasures.

Other jurisdictions such as New Jersey limit the countermeasures a casino can take against skilled players. Some countermeasures result in disadvantages for the casino. Frequent or complex shuffling, for example, reduces the amount of playing time and consequently the house winnings. Others, known as continuous shuffle machines CSMs , allow the dealer to simply return used cards to a single shoe to allow playing with no interruption.

Because CSMs essentially force minimal penetration, they greatly reduce the advantage of traditional counting techniques. American mathematician Edward O. Thorp is considered the father of card counting.

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The stakes are raised systematically and lowered after the first losing hand. Paroli is often defined as a reversed Martingale system, prompting the players to top the stake after every winning hand. Every next bet should be doubled and re-set after three consecutive winning rounds.

As you can see, the Reversed Martingale is very easy to use, as it requires the player to press the bet only 3 times and revert to the original wager in two cases — after a loss or when a series of three winning hands in a row is completed. An added value of Paroli is that you do not need to have a substantial budget to implement this strategy, which is the main drawback of some other progressive betting patterns. On the downside, three linked winning hands are not that easy to land, and the players may find themselves operating at a loss before long.

The losing hands will follow the flat betting pattern whereas the winning hands will be followed by the bet increase — but only if it will result in the desired profit of one unit. Otherwise, the bet size is decreased to assure that the accurate amount is acquired, as shown in the table below:. The desired result is a single unit win on every session as well as the increased damage control during the losing streaks. The method is not aggressive which means that you will be able to sustain longer losing streaks without suffering irreparable damage to your finances.

The proceeds, although modest, will gradually accumulate, recuperating the losses incurred across ten rounds in no more than 4 wins. At the same time, you may find the system frustrating as it requires a lot of self-discipline and restraint. As opposed to the progressive betting methods, the negative strategies demand that the bets are increased during the losing streaks; the idea is to recover all that you have previously lost and to gain a profit.

By default, negative progressions are more aggressive than their counterparts and they carry a somewhat higher risk rate. When you first come across to Martingale, it may seem like a heaven-sent system that simply cannot fail. You will soon discover that not all share your initial enthusiasm; there will be those who might urge you to avoid this strategy, especially if your gambling budget is limited. As a negative progression system, Martingale mandates that you double the stake after every losing hand and go back to flat betting after a win.

In the perfect world, this should generate a series of cumulative winnings and recuperate the losses in a course of a single losing streak. But what happens if the streak prolongs and you budget dries out? Even if you start wagering with the betting minimum, you are running a risk of leaving the table empty-handed.

If the trend keeps up, you can soon end up with a considerable debt, which is probably not what you have signed up for when joining the blackjack table and introducing a betting structure to your game. High rollers will, of course, be able to disregard the elevated risk rate of the Martingale system , but average online or land-based casino visitors will probably need to adjust their strategy to the amount of money they can afford to lose.

For most of them, this means that Martingale is off the limits. The benefit of using Martingale is that it can produce excellent results in a relatively short time span. As you can see, the cons, in this case, outweigh the pros, which means that you may want to leave the strategy to those with more money to waste.

The system has an alternating pattern, urging the players to increase the stakes by a single unit after a loss or deduct one unit from the follow-up wager after a win. The entire scheme is very easy to follow through — all you need to do is remember your previous bet and act accordingly. Also, since the increase is moderate, you will not risk losing a large portion of your budget.

Last but not least, thanks to the controlled variations in bet size, you are less likely to hit the table limits. In Laboucher, the players start with any sequence of numbers, where the first and the last number in the chain determine the bet total. When you add up the first and the last number, you will get a total of 11, which should be the initial bet.

If you happen to win, the relevant numbers should be eliminated from the sequence, leaving you with 3 — 4 — 6. The increased control of both the budget and the progression of your bets is the main perk of Laboucher, but the players should make sure to use it at high limit tables.

Seemingly complicated, the blackjack betting strategy is actually much simpler than it looks at first glance. After deciding on the betting unit, the players will just need to make sure that the system is executed correctly, in accordance with the sequence. It makes sense for players to bet large amounts when the odds are in their favor. The true count is what determines our advantage and ultimately the amount we should bet. The true count is fully explained in our blackjack card counting section.

The Kelly Criterion says that if a player knows his advantage then he should bet that percentage of his bankroll. As such, it is important to play at tables that have low enough minimums for players to capitalize when odds are favorable. Trusting for now that you can gain an advantage with a counting system, the real question becomes: How should you bet in order to maximize your profits while minimizing your risk?

Once again, the mathematicians have answered this one for us. According to Professor J. Kelly in , the optimal betting method is to bet a percentage of your total bankroll that corresponds exactly to the percent advantage you have at any particular time.

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