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Sheet Form Statistics Filter Pending. Ence att vinna runda 14 Ence vs heroic. Ence att vinna runda 6 Ence vs heroic. Follow via push notifications. Swole patrol att vinna Virtus pro vs swole patrol. Liquid att vinna Liquid vs Navi. Mousesports att vinna Mousesports vs renegades. Liquid att vinna.
Mousesports att vinna Liquid vs Navi mousesports vs renegades. Ghost gaming att vinna Ghost gaming vs Navi. Optic att vinna Optic vs Virtus pro. Liquid att vinna Astralis vs liquid. Navi vinna runda 15 Navi vs sharks. Today's best betting bonuses. Compare odds bonuses. Account Log in Register. Log in. Forgot password Cancel. Because once you understand that sports betting is has almost nothing to do with sports alone, but more with the numbers and how you find positive expected value then your betting experience changes forever.
I was studying Water Science And Environmental Engineering, where I upgraded my knowledge about statistics and created my fist models in spreadsheets. Later I used this knowledge and started created my own sports betting models, that are based on probabilistic methods. I decided to help sports bettors to change their old bad betting habits and start looking at betting through numbers.
By the way I finally watched all videos from your course. Last one is brutal!!!! Great information!!!!!! Way to Go MB…. I tried many betting services that ripped me off and crowdsourcing picks that was still just based on luck. All resulted in losses. Not just the betting model, but the brutal honesty and uplifting motivation. MB is not a hustler, he promises nothing except the truth and promotes discipline, hard work and knowledge. This is for everyone. Just starting out with small bankroll or professional gambler looking to refine his or her process.
Amazing value for money and easy to follow video instructions on how to build complex betting models anyone can understand! You opened my eyes about the world of sports betting and now i look different about everything! I want to thank you for all your work and effort you putted in those videos and those formulas! I am impressed with the entire content, and indeed every word is justified by the facts and by a mathematical formula.
Definitely everyone must to buy A Journey if he deals with betting because it is worth every penny and I can not wait for upcoming updates. Thanks again for all your efforts that you invested in the site and in A Journey and share it all with us. I am up 36 points with my MLB bets. This is even better than my teacher! Before I found you I made some stupids bets like Barcelona win 1. It didnt worked out for me. And after I read the articles and saw your videos.
After getting your Journey Package last year, I decided to start Twitter page as well, where i post my soccer selection for free. So that other People, like I was, wont get scammed by these scammy Tipsters. His knowledge and numbers on the topic are crazy! He takes a strategical, analytical and investing approaches that are usually found in the financial world.
Hi MB, I just want to thank you for everything you are doing. I really appreciate the effort you are putting in and also the likemindedness. Your organic approach to development is priceless and I am really happy I joined a year ago!
I am looking forward to allocating more time to study the content available to us and to practice it daily! Thanks again! I learned more from you in 1 week then I learned in 3 years of college. It is amazing service and a great website. MB is professional and I can say with confidence this man is successful sports bettor. I have been with the underdogchance team for over 2 years I reckon, and in all this time I can surely say that I will be with them till the end.
Members section is a bettors gem. Proud to have stumbled upon MB. Great job! Yes you can win at sports betting , but before we go little bit deeper with this topic, please forget everything you know about betting — just for a moment. There is not much helpful information available on this topic anyway. Albert Einstein once said… insanity is doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results. If you try hard and you still lose in sports betting, you are probably doing something wrong.
Maybe it is now the time to change your betting method and learn something new. Sports is one thing. Sports Betting is another thing. Profitable Sports Betting is completely different thing from both. I constantly get emails from followers, who want to bet specific sport, because they watch the sport, because they love the sport and they think because of that they will make a profit.
If profitable sports betting would be correlated to the love for sport, then all professional coaches, fans and players would be the best sports handicappers. Imaging Tom Brady or Leo Messi as the best sports handicappers. I know it sounds crazy, but believe me most bettors mix those three tings in the same context, while in reality are three different things.
And understanding this is so important, that we can not move forward if this is not clear. To explain the difference between Sport, Sports Betting and Profitable Sports Betting, we must understand how betting companies make money. Most sports bettors think, that betting sites, make money because someone bet on his favourite team and this team lose the game. This is not exactly how this works and this is definitely not their business model. In decimal odds we see 1. And that difference is the margin vig, vigorish, juice,… as we like to call.
And once they have betting advantage, the only thing they need is the liquidity and patience. The patience is easy. So, the question was how to create a good liquidity and where to find a lot of people where majority of them will not use any sports betting analytics, but will still be betting a lot of money every day. Sport is a perfect pool of people and information for bookmakers.
Games are every day. Watching is fun. People can win short term and get the feeling what winning in sports betting looks like. Some examples are esports betting , politics betting , maybe once in the future reality show betting,… anything where you can attract a lot of people, who are willing to watch games and bet. When we have the sport and a lot of people, who are willing to bet on these events, then we also know that they will watch these games. The first problem is how our brains work and the dopamine that is released when we bet and watch games.
Excitement is much much bigger when there is a combination of watching games and betting. Many sports bettors will say, they watch games, because they know better what to bet. But what is watching games basically? It is collecting the data. And the problem is that most bettors think they can collect the data and correctly analyse it by watching games. It is a mistake and sports is just a sport.
It is used as a pool of information and people, who are willing to bet. The question should not be, what sport you love, but what sport you can analyse, find positive expected value and finally how to make money in sports betting. If you start researching Sports Betting Guide, you will find tons of advice how to place a bet, what are the odds, where to bet,… but most of these information are completely useless when it comes to profitable sports betting.
Answers on these questions will not make you a winning sports bettor. Answers will make you a sports bettor, noting more. In other words, you will know how to place a bet. Making a sports bet is easy. Millions of people bet every day and they are sports bettors. But they are not necessary sports bettors that make money and definitely not profitable sports bettors who will have a positive lifetime betting balance. Profitable sports betting is investing with the intention to make a profit.
The odds are the prices that you will be paying and if you will pay bad price you can not win. It is not about love for the sport, it is not about how many times you watch games, it is not about how long have you played some sport, but exclusively about placing yourself in a position, where you can make rational bet decisions.
Professional Sports Bettors will never involve emotions with the sport they love. In fact in most cases it is much much better to separate business from fun. When it comes to betting for money, the main focus is profit. When I started betting in , I quickly realised, that sports betting has nothing to do with the sport, but only how skilled you are in predictions against betting market.
So the next step was how to create a method, that will exploit value bets. And this is how my betting journey started. I loved soccer football and I still love to watch and play. But I decided that I will research whole market and will try to find a sport, where I am not emotionally involved and where I can use sports betting analytics. For me baseball betting was ideal.
But it was a perfect match for me. Winning bettors know exactly when to bet, what to bet and when to stay away from betting on games. They also know how much to bet and what to do with betting profits. They completely separate sports betting from watching sports and love for the sports. The basic concept of making money, not only in sports betting, but in general is to find the value. The value can be described as a difference between two numbers.
The first number will be always offered by sports betting market the odds. The second number you must find out. And the difference is what we call a value bet. Imagine that you want to make a profit by selling a Beer in your restaurant.
What do you need to do? You need to buy a beer for the price A and sell it for the price B. And B minus A must be positive in your favour. And I believe that we all agree that if you will buy a beer for lower price and later sell it for bigger, you can expect a profit. This is the simple concept of making money and this should be the starting point here too.
In the picture above we can see the odds from Pinnacle and the odds of 2. This price can change during the day and the biggest question is what is the right price to bet? Is this price good? Betting odds are basically probabilities of the outcomes turned into the numbers. This must be clear. Every single game or betting event has 2 or more possible outcomes.
All these words are used just for marketing purposes. These numbers or probabilities are simply estimations of the chances of one team versus other team or one outcome versus another outcome. After bookmakers include their margins juice, vig , this price is little bit lower. So instead of 2. This price can later raise or fall, depend on different factors, which includes action of sports bettors and involved money.
And our goal is to estimate our price independently from bookmakers, because only by comparing projected odds estimated price with the bookmakers odds will give you the answer on value bet. And this is exactly Number A minus number B, which is the basic concept of making money.
This can not be estimated properly in any humans brains or by intuition — at least not on bets. This can not be estimated in our head and this can not be estimated by watching games or just reading news. Winning betting theory is pretty simple, despite I see that most bettors simply ignore these rules.
Ignoring or not understanding the theory will not help you on your sports betting journey. Here are 5 simple rules of profitable sports betting and how they are correlated to my sports betting models. I hope that we all agree now, that the odds are probabilities turned into the numbers and they represent the prices on betting market.
So, the first step before you make a bet is to estimate your own probabilities, independently from bookmakers, because you must have an idea what is the price you are willing to pay. Once you have your estimated probabilities, you can simply turn them into your own odds, which is basically the price that can be compared with bookmakers odds.
It is basically your price vs bookmakers price. Example of my comparison of my estimated odds and bookmakers odds from my CSGO betting model:. After you compare your odds with the bookmakers odds, you must look for the discrepancy between the numbers. If your predictive analytics in sports betting is good, then you can exploit possible bets. This is what we call a value bet.
This is your Number A — Number B. Sports betting is always a log game. Majority of sports gamblers will bet until they lose everything. Winning in short period of time is even more dangerous, because it can give you a false illusion, that you have the advantage against sports betting market, where in fact you were just lucky. This is why profitable sports betting is always a long game. And this is how you should set your plan and the game.
Always bet only small percentage of your bankroll, because this is a game of percentages and no matter how good you are you will face losing streaks. Winning streaks are easy to handle — everyone can do it. But the difference is made in losing streaks. Only the best can survive them. Always track your bets, because this is the only way to see if your betting makes sense. All professional sports bettors track their bets from different angles and from different perspective. I use my betting spreadsheet, where I track all important info about the game, profit, w-l record, yield, ROI, closing line value, p-value, opening odds versus closing odds,… But what is most important I can see how my betting model perform.
I see a lot of sports bettors who come to me and ask me questions about how to start betting with the numbers, which is great because I see that more and more people see how important this is. With the internet and all the information, there is no excuse anymore to not understand how profitable betting works. How were other bettors in my situation jumping to the next level?
I knew there was more than just understanding gambling probabilities, betting margins, sports betting market,…. I soon realised that in order to make money long term, I need to be better than the competition. And this competition are not just bookmakers, but also other sports bettors. Sports betting is always a relative competition against this huge betting market.
So, I knew I had to be better than the rest. Betting guides that we find on the internet are in most cases useless, because they are targeting SEO ranking in sports betting World, instead of targeting real and quality questions and answers. So, the next step was to create betting models, that will work and then the dirty job. Test, improve and put a lot of effort.
Sports Handicappers who make their bets without projecting the odds before they place a wager are just guessing wit their imperfect betting software — their brains and emotions. Reading news, watching games, looking at betting trends,… this is just one way how to collect the data. But if you can not collect correctly the data and analyse it with probabilistic method, then you are just guessing.
It is crucial to have a betting software, that will process the data without any emotions and estimate probabilities the best as possible. In I was tracking separately MLB bets based on my betting model and based on gut feeling plays:. They are constantly looking for picks on the internet and that sports handicapper that will make them rich, but this is not going to happen. If you understand the importance of relative competition in sports betting, the concept of value and line movement, following does not make any sense in sports betting.
You have the best chance to make your own bets, learn how to create a betting model and build this knowledge and income source for a lifetime. I am sure many if you already spent a lot of money for such picks services or are simply disappointed with other peoples picks.
This is why you SHOULD focus on your betting knowledge instead of focusing on other sports handicappers and their betting picks:. Without following other bettors tips. Imagine that you are the one who makes profitable bet predictions, instead of following and paying hundreds and thousands of dollars each month for betting advice, that is basically not backed with any betting model. You can do it by yourself, if you want. All these results will soon regress to the mean and people lose because of margins.
You can create sports betting system that will work for you. It can be just one league, one bet type, that will work for you. Take it at your own pace and come back whenever you want. Most bettors will also not learn complex programming languages like Python or R statistics.
This is why this course is so valuable for many many bettors, because the sheets are easy to understand, not very complex and the core of my models are explained on a simple way. Based on realistic results — All my models and bet results are tested and in real life based on every day real betting situations. It is not just theory. Download my private betting models — Not only I will show you how to make sports betting models in spreadsheets, you will also get my private betting models to download, so you can either use them, adjust them or just use them as a sporting point.
This online betting course will show you how I bet, how I use profitable betting models — and how to keep winning. Almost all bettors struggle with monthly subscriptions, following picks and on the long run betting without the edge will eat their bankrolls. Sports bettors will pay thousands and thousands of dollars for sports betting tips every year. We have an idea what skilled bettor is. But still bettors pay thousands of thousands of dollars every single month.
This is why this betting course and lifetime access is so valuable. You will learn how I bet, you will learn how I use statistics in sports betting, you will learn how to create a betting model, you will learn how to make money in sports betting world, you will get access to my private betting models and you will connect with same thinking sports bettors that make amazing results. The heart of my bet journey is baseball handicapping and my MLB betting model.
This is how I started betting on the next level and this is where my biggest focus is. But I also created and show the way how to built some other betting models for different sports. All results were real time tested with the real odds and real life betting situations.
My baseball betting system includes complete understanding the numbers I use for prediction the games, strategy and of course sport betting algorithm that outputs winning percentages and projected betting odds. Every team is lineup based with every player and his stats. Trades and injures can be adjusted easily. The core of the model is there and the only thing I check is the lineups and injuries every day.
They beat Cloud 9 and they went against fnatic and they beat Astralis in a BO1. In their most recent game against LG, TSM won the first map, and narrowly lost the second map and third. I would favour LG's individual performance but if players like Sick have been top fragging in each game for TSM and if they continue, they have a serious chance of winning. I think the TSM to win bet is too risky for me. Ok the maps are Mirage, Train and Overpass.
I mean, F3 did beat mousesports but they looked like crap and they have internal issues or something. NAVI should tkae this. Small bet here. First day of the group thingy. Try to observe how the teams are playing as TSM have their original roster back.
Fnatic looking really strong here but Cloud 9 have a chance and with these odds, a ICB bet on them are a great choice. F3 peformed pretty well against Mousesports on Train. I honestly think they should have won. In the past two months, F3 have had really good performance on this map against Tier 1 teams and in many cases it was extremely close losses.
Another great F3 bet. First map is Overpass. This is a map in which both teams are good at. The last time they played against each other on Overpass, NAVI barely scraped through with a win. Overpass is one of F3's best maps in my opinion and this is just a must bet with such good odds. Like I really don't want to bet on this match. However NiP have been known to bounce back like its nothing. It's risky stuff so this is the only bet I am willing to take with decent odds.
I personally think Epsilon deserve better odds but HR is really make me question on whatever bet I take. I really don't know which team to bet. Everywhere I look at this game, its pretty risky. So I am going for a bet for there to be 3 maps. Its much better odds than either team to win at least one map but it is slighlty riskier. This is going to be one insane clench.
Great odds for Immortals though they have been playing kinda bad without peacemaker. However their loses are kinda close and remember that this is still a strong team and their players are much better than ENCE individually. ENCE very good win streak in their own tier but they got destroyed against Astralis which is normal.
Sure allu is very good but in game they aren't that impressive. Immortals are the better team here despite their recent performances and this game should be close. Ok here's my reason to bet on Orbit. Due to their recent matchfixing incident, they are under a lot of scrutiny and they will probably not do this again for a while.
Fredi I think is by far the best player and without him Esuba are going to get even more recked. Also its a BO2 and Orbit shouldn't lose two maps. But you never know. Only for those who want the risk to gain the profit. Even though SK dosen't have pimp anymore and magisk is not playing in this one, they have valde and gla1ve. These two players are really good and you may have seen them before on CPH Wolves. I personally don't think Fnatic will lose this. Since Olof came back, they just steamrolled every team.
FaZe had an incredibly close game with dignitas which really makes me question if its worth to underdog bet them or not. They also got by fnatic a couple days back but they managed to pull a win over them too. We shouldn't put FaZe down for barely beating Dig. Dig are a good team and so are FaZe. Of course I favour fnatic but hey FaZe are a good enough team to win their own map pick.
I don't think theres any way of Fnatic dropping two maps especially with Olofomeister back and fnatic performing back to normal. However TSM does have a small chance to win one map here. They had two close maps with FaZe on Train and on Cobblestone. They also had two close maps with Dignitas and they nearly beat Fnatic on Cache two days ago Cadian is peforming really well in his games for TSM and they seriously can have a chance at one map.
Tyloo are the best asian team and they had mixed results from Eleague. Tyloo should be more than comfortable in this matchup and this should be very easy for them. They never throw!! CyberZen and they get ed and if they can't beat these teams there is no way they can beat Tyloo. Ok first of all, SKIP if you hate the risk. I am betting on this game and on Orbit because Gambit sucks online. Statistically, they lost every match they played against Orbit this year.
Orbit has been doing great lately but lets not forget that this is a very inconsistent team. The amount of force buys and chokes this team experiences is insane. However you can't deny results and this is a team that is getting them. They Kinguin yesterday and hopefully they will do the same to Gambit. But that isn't likely and it will probably be either way. Gambit does have talent and are a good team and they will be hot off their BO1 wins.
But they are BO1s so this may be the first recent BO3 they may have. They are simply feasting and beasting right now. They beat Space Soldiers and previoulsy lost against Tricked in an extremely close game. I expect the score to be either way but this is the safest bet you can do on this match.
FaZe are more than capable to take on Olof and fnatic. Olofmeister is back but there is a possiblity that he might be cold. I know fnatic will probably have no trouble with TSM, they have world class players such as flusha and dennis but TSM is too underrated here. This is the team that managed to give LG a run for their money and consistently do that to higher tier teams. I know twistz is not playing and they have cadian for a sub but he is a decent player and TSM do have a very small but possible chance here.
Even if they can't win which is most probable, they should be able to win at least 9 rounds. There is absolutely no point of betting on fnatic as the odds are so terrible and its a BO1 and I know we won't win much but hey this is how betting works. Good odds for alternate here.
Alpha getting overhyped and they are a decent team with upset potential but the odds here are just irrestible. Alternate are more than capable of winning here. However there is an element of risk so we will go low. They convincly smashed ANOX yesterday and they should do the same to k1ck. The current k1ck is a far cry from the k1ck we saw challenge tier 1 teams earlier this year. This k1ck struggles to beat crap tier teams like AlienTech and DeathTrap.
PENTA should take this comfortably. CPH Wolves don't have an organisation anymore but this may just lead them to try to impress so they can be signed by a new one. They are a pretty good team and they should have no trouble mopping up Bpro. Bpro only wins against their own tier but against higher tier teams such as Space Soldiers and Orbit, they simply get demolished.
Hell this is a team that Tricked which even Kinguin managed to tie with in a BO2. Kinguin of course will probably win and a wouldn't be suprising but PRIDE has a possiblity of taking this. Definitely the safest bet of the day. OpTic can take this. Remember that OpTic has a lot of frag potential and when they get going, its GG.
You can't deny that HR are a very good team and in BO1s, they are even better. I know this won't make much but this is one of the safer bets I could find. In all of Gambit's games so far, they scored more than 8. They are in decent form but that game against FaZe showed some things they need to improve on. G2 were just WTF against mousesports. They got 1 round But other than that they are alright.
I do think G2 is going to win but Gambit can definitely get over 9 rounds. Cloud 9 have had a decent run in Qualifer. They beat Empire , lost to mousesports and beat Tyloo In my view, Cloud 9 are more consistent and are playing better than nV right now.
EnVyUs are just playing like crap. These aren't very impressive results and if you watched their games, you would have foudn serious faults with their gameplay - kennyS not hitting his shots and DEVIL is basically a bot. Going into this matchup here, I do favoru Cloud 9 but lets not underestimate nV. KennyS is a one man team and if hes hot along with NBK or Happy, they can do some serious damage here.
Also EnVy played cobblestone like twice recently and they may have improved on their bad plays I really don't like betting on BO1 matches. The unpredictability, the bad vetos and the inconsistency really tilts me. So lets analyse FLF first.
Little is just an insane beast. He has top fragged in both of his games so far. FLG seems to depend on little far too much though. And they have trouble just closing and winning rounds. Also there have been players such as roman with 6 kills against OpTic which really lets down the team. RNG have just been tilting and tilting.
Nearly everyone is playing like shit and they got beaten by one of the most inconsistent NA teams ever. Like they have literally no good results lately. CLG hasn't won a single map from 6 matchups and they have a coach standin, Pita. CLG beat SK in an extremely close last map but Astralis should win in this matcup, worst case scenario
After I while I realized that I was onto something so I dug a bit deeper and broke through the clouds. It was essentially an arrow pointing downward, flat or upward, depending on their pre-calculated player form. I wanted to use the same principle to graphically mark which CSGO teams are hot at the moment. By looking at this we can clearly identify the performance lines for each:. Hence, we can take advantage of poorly calculated odds or just use this to bet on special markets with much more confidence.
Also, try to incorporate dutch or hedge betting whenever you can to further minimize risks. Immortals have 5 wins and 6 losses. Couple that with the fact that their performance line is green , and a whole new world opens up for you. Last 5 matches are actually extensively used as a metric in sports betting. Consider this as a cherry on top: just another dimension you use to asses a potential winner. As you can see, this is pretty much every information you could possibly need to predict an outcome of a CSGO match.
Take a look at this example and see if you can come up with a match winner:. In this instance, I would rely on the Performance Line as a potential match winner indicator. Activities offered by advertising links to other sites may be deemed an illegal activity in certain jurisdictions. Read Review. Visit Site. Cookie Pros Cons Visit Site.
At the top of the page is the score and in the bottom corners we see the players and how they perform in this round. The games are played similar to tennis sets or playoffs, where the best team out of 2, 3 or 5 games wins. Every map has its own characteristics and the impact on teams and players.
As in any other competitive sport the best teams and the best players can change and will change during time. But we have already some teams and the players that are constantly in the top rankings. But the best ranked and best paid players are source for players hltv. I hope we are little bit more familar with esports and csgo now, as we can see that we have teams, we have players, we have games they play against each other and of course bookmakers later set the odds, so we can bet.
CSGO betting is similar to betting on any other sport that we know. The true concept of betting is basically the same — to win you must bet on positive expected value and beat the market. The market is pretty young at this moment, but it grows exponentially, especially after the COVID happened, because most of the sports were shut down and esports games were played basically without any problems.
But the covid situation was just small positive push against other sports. The real reason, why esports betting and csgo betting is the next big thing is because younger generation love video games. And when we have the market, when have liquidity, we have money involved and bookmakers will offer more and more bets.
Currently most popular markets are moneyline bets, where we simply bet on a team to win the game, like in MLB for example. Other very popular markets are handicaps, similar to spread betting in basketball, tennis or football. And I see that live betting is more and more popular among bettors, because they can speculate with the maps and how the teams will play each map.
The best site with free statistics about players and teams is hltv. First of all we all must understand how betting market works. When we have a lot of people who are willing to watch games and at the same time place bets targeted audience for bookmakers are men , we also have very good environment for betting. Bookmakers make money with betting margins or betting commissions if you like , because they have created small edge with every single bet.
And because I also follow trends in the World not only from betting perspective but also from financial, technology,… I see that this is basically the next big thing. Smaller and exotic leagues in other sports will never reach the level that we will see in eSports in the future, which is happening right now. Young people love video games and streaming, players who play esports have very good salaries and are basically stars with the fans, like we see in other pro sports.
When we combine this information with the understanding sports betting and how betting is basically relative competition against others not only against bookmakers , now is the time to take the advantage. The market is new and young. Esports betting is young and new. Csgo betting market is not that sharp like nfl betting or nba betting.
And I see this as an opportunity. The first thing I did is to research the market. I saw different leagues and video games that are played now League of Legends, Dota,… , but I found that CSGO is the best for the start, because it is at least for me least complicated. We have two teams, who will basically shot against each other and we can use these csgo statistics to create esports betting model. Then used my sports betting knowledge and betting concepts to build csgo betting model , where I estimate my own probabilities.
You can also read more about my csgo betting in my blog post here. The deeper you go with the understanding csgo betting markets, csgo teams and players, the better predictions you will make.