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We know they are super quick and are digesting far more statistical information than we as bettor can. But are they actually able to be beaten? Yes they are. The following are a few concrete reasons as to why employing skill, sport specific knowledge and a dash of experience, the algos are beatable. Take the NFL for example. A player like Tom Brady has dominated statistical comparisons his whole career.
He has delivered championships to the New England Patriots and set a new standard in professional football. But there is something about Tom Brady that lifts him above the numbers. On the occasions that the Patriots are being beaten in statistical measures, he more often than not, somehow finds a way to win. The intangibles in sport do change results. Algorithms remove the human factor from the act of framing the odds, but the human factor is front and centre in every game. It is in every play.
Humans do the unthinkable, inexcusable and the unbelievable all the time. They all use a draft. Many international sports employ similar systems. This is all in an effort to even out competitions and keep fan interest high. What it ultimately produces are a huge proportion of inconsistent teams who win one week then get crushed the next.
Form lines are hard to interpret and what seems like a bankable statistical measure one week becomes obsolete the next. Take shooting percentage in the NBA for example. One night a team may be lights out from outside hitting threes at will. Perhaps they lose their mojo mid game and the momentum of the match swings dramatically.
Algorithms working on live points spreads and points totals have an almost impossible task to do. There is a great deal of assumption at play. A definite weakness in any numbers based predictive tool. Match ups between in consistent teams create huge challenges for oddsmakers. In turn this presents huge opportunity for bettors taking on live markets. Putting your experience and knowledge of a particular sport up against the computer generated number crunching can be profitable in these circumstances.
The MLB tends to go into a weather delay, but the NFL and various international sports will continue through all sorts of inclement weather. For these sports, a change of weather during a game can have a large effect on the style of play and points scored. Now clearly when the weather hits it becomes obvious to all, but prior to the onset of the bad weather there is a possible delay in any marked change to odds.
It is possible to monitor weather forecasts and radar to be informed of the time of arrival of weather. The meteorologists are very accurate on these forecast now as they use extensive modelling. The live betting algorithms have conceivably not factored the weather in.
Of course sportsbooks may suspend betting at any time but there is no doubt weather is worth monitoring on the off chance it may expose a weakness in the odds. The fitness related fade out is a thing in many aerobic sports. The NBA, Soccer and hard running sports like Australian Football require elite aerobic fitness to compete till the final whistle.
This is a human factor that is very difficult to quantify. What we do know is, often the team that is fitter will hit the finish line with serious momentum, while the team fading out may concede bulk points late in games.
With the onset of GPS monitoring of athletes and the data being released to the public post game, as is happening in some sports already, perhaps algorithms will be developed that factor in fitness fade outs. As it stands at the moment your observation on the condition of athletes late in games is of real value and may just beat the algos. Injuries are part and parcel of professional sport.
As a bettor at times they can cruel your chances, on other occasions they play right into your hands. An injury to a star player can change the course of a match and while the obvious injuries are immediately accounted for by the odds makers, the niggling injury which can go unnoticed is not. Again your observations and knowledge of a particular sport are critical here.
As an example, you may detect a player looking proppy or limping and figure that this may change their effectiveness for the rest of the game. This is a point of difference to the live betting algorithm and may just be a spot that you can capitalize. Observing how live betting odds change reveals some of the weaknesses of the live betting algorithms. At times it is strange to watch in game odds fluctuate wildly from the pre-game odds as events occur on field.
Often these fluctuations can occur early in a match when there is ample time for a team to recover from an early setback. Referring back to our example of inconsistent teams, when one team scores early, say in the NFL. Often their odds very quickly shorten. The algorithm knows that teams scoring first historically have a much higher chance of winning and factors this in. But what if the two teams playing are both offensively minded yet struggle defensively.
The team going behind early has ample opportunity to click offensively and come right back into the game. This is often the time to hit the live betting markets and catch that extra value. Fans watching on TV at home or streaming an event are actually seeing delayed footage. TV is often around 7 seconds behind and streaming can be up to 30 seconds behind real time. This creates a huge edge for the books. Where the algorithm finds it harder to compete is with fans who are in person at venues.
Take the early rounds of a grand slam tennis tournament for instance. A fan watching a match on an outside court will be able to see various ebbs and flows of a match, player fatigue, or negative body language up close and as it happens. The astute gambler can act on this fast without delay and overcome the edge the sportsbooks have. As mentioned earlier in the article live sport on TV is delayed by a few seconds. Those seconds are critical for the sportsbook as they can reframe odds in an instant.
Often if you are watching the live odds on your mobile app and viewing the game on TV at the same time, the odds will change before a play has been made. This creates a huge edge for the sportsbooks and a tough one to overcome. If the play represents a huge momentum shift, like a two run homer in the MLB, and a problem for the algorithm, then the sportsbook will simply suspend betting until they have recalculated.
Asked 6 years, 6 months ago. Active 3 months ago. Viewed 8k times. Do they use variables as morale, ball possession, And if thats the case how do they calculate it in real-time? Improve this question. Jeromy Anglim Svexo Svexo 1 1 silver badge 4 4 bronze badges. The odds are constantly adjusted to ensure that whatever the outcome, the bookie always wins. I decided gambling was general enough that it's probably worth making.
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